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New Hampshire’s primaries are quite interesting. The primaries are semi-open, allowing undeclared voters to participate in either the Democratic contest or the Republican race. Historically speaking, voters, especially those who are undeclared, tend to makeup their mind late, making polling the Republican and Democratic primaries very difficult.

In 2008, Hillary Clinton pulled an impressive, come-behind win. Will “New Hampshirites” defy the polls again and help her win the Democratic primary? If Bernie Sanders secures a victory in the Granite State, could this help him win upcoming caucus and primaries?

Even though the tracking polls are showing that the Democratic contest is tightening, all polls have Sanders winning the race by over 10%. Even if she loses, Clinton could still claim a moral victory if she can limit’s Sanders’ winning margin. For instance, if we expect Sanders will win by 10%, but he ends up winning by 3%, Clinton can make the case that her message is resonating with voters, reinforce her belief that she is the most credible candidate, and halt Sanders’ momentum.

With less than 12 hours before Dixville Notch’s residents cast their ballots, I will be looking at the following variables.

The first variable is turnout, which is determined by two factors: organizational capacity and voter enthusiasm. Both campaigns have a very good ground game and their get-out-the-vote operations seem pretty sophisticated. Voter enthusiasm is probably more difficult to gauge, but it seems that Sanders’ supporters are more enthusiastic than Clinton voters.

Right now most experts on NH politics believe that voter turnout will be very high. Indeed, Bill Gardner, the NH Secretary of State, based on the number of people updating their voter registration, predicts that over 60% of registered voters will participate in the primaries. If current trends hold, high voter turnout, especially among millennial voters, will help Sanders preserve his lead in the polls, as the UMass Lowell/7News tracking poll confirms.

The second variable is whether undeclared voters will participate at higher rate in the Republican or Democratic race. Forty-four percent of all registered voters are not registered with either party. In comparison, 26% of New Hampshirites are registered Democrats. Gardner expects voter participation in the Republican primary to be higher than in the Democratic one.  While this will make it more difficult to predict the outcome in the Republican contest, there should be less fluidity in the Democratic race. This, of course, is good news for the Sanders campaign.

Given that Sanders will probably win the primary, I think that the big question is whether Clinton will win the Democratic vote. She won the vote of registered Democrats in Iowa by a large margin (56% to 39%) and last week many Clinton supporters made a big deal about Sanders’ poor performance with rank-and-file Democrats. With the support of the state’s Democratic establishment, the Clinton campaign should be able to secure the Democratic vote.

The most recent UMass Lowell/7News tracking poll gives us a pretty good snapshot of the race. Although the race has tightened, Sanders continues his double-digit lead, 56% to 40%. He is winning undeclared voters’ support (59% to 38%) and the Democratic vote 54% to 42%. If these trends hold, expect the headlines to stress Sanders’ growing support among registered Democrats. While it is not clear whether this could help Sanders make inroads in the South Carolina primary or the Nevada caucus, the Clinton campaign is going to have to spend some time reassuring her donors that she can still win the nomination.

The third variable is the regional distribution of votes. To make sense of the state’s political map, I like the way Dante Scala, a fellow political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, divides the state.

Counties Population Percentage
Core Hillsborough 405184 31
Rockingham 300621 23
Border Core Merrimack 147171 11
Stratford 125604 10
CT River Valley Cheshire 76115 6
Grafton 89658 7
Sullivan 43103 3
The North Belknap 60305 5
Carroll 47399 4
Coos 31653 2

While the numbers are a bit dated, the WBUR/MassInc Poll, carried out a week ago, finds that Sanders has more support in Hillsborough County (52% to 38%) than in Rockingham County, where he basically leads Clinton by 1%. Sanders has a huge lead in the Connecticut River Valley (63% to 35%) and strong lead in the “border core” counties.

Not surprisingly, the Clinton campaign is trying to mobilize its supporters in the “core” counties. In the last week, according to the New England Cable News’ Primary Candidate Tracker, her campaign has held 16 events. Nine of these were held in Hillsborough County and four in Rockingham County. Her campaign has not invested too many resources in the Connecticut River Valley. In fact, her last event in this region was on 3 January 2016.

The Sanders campaign’s strategy is more complex. Surprisingly, it has only held 14 events. By holding three events in the Connecticut River valley, the campaign is building up a firewall that can mitigate the Clinton campaign’s possible gains in the “core”. It has held three events in the “border core”, trying to protect its lead in that region. The rest of the events have been held in the state’s “core”, with the goal of preventing the Clinton campaign of gaining any momentum in the closing days of the race.

I think these three variables will help us make sense of tomorrow’s primary results and they will also help us handicap the upcoming Democratic caucuses and primaries.

For the reasons listed above, I think Sanders will win the primary, but I wonder whether the Clinton campaign can close the gap and win a majority of registered Democrats. If she does, Clinton will claim a moral victory and it will raise important questions about the long-term viability of Sanders’ candidacy.

No matter who wins tomorrow, it will be an interesting race. The results will help us answers so important questions. I am especially curious as to whether the Clinton campaign’s concerted attacks have stopped Sanders’ momentum. Similarly, I wonder if Bill Clinton’s attacks and Madeline Albright’s comments shaming young women for not supporting Clinton have had any impact on the race. I guess we will have to wait and see.

And, as for the Republican primary, I will share my thoughts tomorrow morning.