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Bernie Sanders, Bernie2016, Caucuses, Conservative, delegates, Democratic National Committee, Democratic Party, DNC, Donald Trump, GOP, Hillary Clinton, John Kasich, Liberal, Marco Rubio, Nomination, Primary, Republican National Committee, Republican Party, Super Tuesday, superdelegates, Ted Cruz, Trump2016
I have not been able to post in a few days. I actually wrote a 12 page paper on Donald Trump’s ascendancy for an online publication. It is currently under review and we will see if it makes the cut. I have also been trying to finish two papers on Bosnia’s peace process.
The nomination races have been quite interesting in the Democratic Party and Republican Party. I think tonight we are going to have some clarity in terms of who will be heading to the general election.
On the Democratic Side
As of today, Hillary Clinton has won 91 pledged delegates to Bernie Sanders’ 65. If we add the superdelegates, Clinton leads 551 to Sanders’ 85!
For the last days, Bernie Sanders has argued that he still can win the nomination. Technically speaking, he is correct. If he can win a majority of the pledge delegates, Sanders could convince many of the superdelegates to switch their votes to reflect voters’ wishes. Delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis in the Super Tuesday contests. So if Sanders can find a way of splitting the pledged delegates, he still has a very, very, very narrow path to win the election.
But, Sanders’s presidential hopes have been spoiled by Clinton’s “yuuuge” win in South Carolina. We all knew that Clinton was going to win, but not by such a large margin: 74% – 26%. If Clinton reproduces this margin in Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas, it will be difficult for Sanders to thwart her momentum.
Which means that Sanders has to really win big in Alaska, Vermont, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Oklahoma. There are not many polls to help us forecast these races. But it is clear than in Massachusetts Clinton is ahead but within the margin of error. In the other primaries or caucuses, it seems to be too close too call.
I will be looking at Colorado very carefully. This is a purple state with a substantial Latino population. And if Sanders can win this state and also win the Latino vote, this will tell us about the state of the race. I am not looking at Texas too closely. This is Clinton country and she will win the Latino vote.
Another question is whether Sanders will do better with African American voters in Minnesota. His campaign does very well with young voters and white voters. To win a general election, he needs to get some support among underrepresented, minority communities.
The South Carolina exit poll did show some weaknesses for Clinton:
- While she closed the gap with the 17-29 age group, he still won it 54%-46%. If we look at the 17-24 age group, he won 6 out of 10 young voters.
- Clinton lost the vote of first-time primary goers once again – 63%-37%. In other words, she is not really attracting new voters.
- She has failed to win the independent vote and this could be problem in the general election.
The good news for Clinton is that her numbers regarding her honesty and trustworthiness improved dramatically, 51%-49%.
By tonight, Clinton should secure the nomination. Sanders will not drop out. He has the money to continue to compete in future contests. He may even with a few caucuses or primaries. But, I don’t think he will be able to block her momentum.
On the Republican Side
The GOP race has descend into a circus. As of today, Trump is leading the race for delegates with 82 delegates. Ted Cruz is in second place with 17 delegates and Marco Rubio in third with 16. In fourth place is John Kasich with 6 delegates and in last place Ben Carson with 4 delegates.
The polls show that Trump will win many of the Super Tuesday races. South Carolina’s demographic makeup is similar to Alabama’s, Georgia’s, Tennessee’s and Arkansa’s demographics. Thus, Trump should be competitive in these states. The only state that Trump is not likely to win is Arkansa, where Cruz seems to be doing well. Trump will likely win Alaska, Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont and Minnesota.
Cruz will win Texas, and maybe Arkansa. The big problem is that he will not win Texas decisively. If he won 50% of the vote in Texas, he would secure all of the state’s 155 delegates. This could be a game changer because it would neutralize Trump’s victories in other states. But, this seems to be unlikely.
Right now, the polls are showing that Cruz will not do well in many of the southern states, coming in third place a few of the southern states. It is important to note that his campaign has invested a lot of money in these states and that his ground game is stronger than the Rubio campaign’s efforts. If Team Cruz can get-out-the -vote in these states, he may be able to win the necessary delegates to protect his second place status in the race.
The big question is whether Rubio can win one of the Super Tuesday states. He should get a few second place finishes and earn some delegates. But, Rubio needs to start winning to stop Trump’s momentum and to make a case that he is the candidate that can unite the Republican Party. Current Florida public opinion polls show that Trump is leading in that race, which puts more pressure on the Rubio campaign to win something.
Kasich has been campaigning in Vermont and it is the only candidate advertising in Alaska. His strategy is to survive the night and campaign in Ohio, where he hopes to win its 66 delegates. And Kasich’s problem is similar to Rubio’s. The polls currently have Trump winning Ohio. Does Kasich have a realistic path towards the nomination if he loses Ohio? Right now, I am not sure if he has a credible shot at the nomination, if he wins Ohio. But, I guess winning an important state like Ohio can only solidify his chances of becoming the GOP establishment’s candidate if Rubio is unable to win something.
And on Ben Carson, he should drop out of the race. He is not likely to do so. But, his supporters should recognize that their vote is just further helping Trump win the nomination.
Concluding Thoughts
Voters across the United States will have a chance to select each party’s nominee. I think that Clinton will essentially secure the nomination tonight. Part of Sanders’ problems is that Trump is winning in the Republican side. This will force many Democrats and independents to value “electability” over other qualities that tend to favor Sanders over Clinton – honesty, cares about my issues, etc….
Clinton has become a better candidate. Her stump speech is stronger and her message is more polished. She needs to thank Sanders for this reality. But as noted above, she still has a lot of work to get ready for a general election. Many voters don’t trust her and she needs to figure out how to fire up the base. The fact that Sanders is winning first-time voters should raise some serious questions about her candidacy.
I think Trump will do well tonight. But I wonder whether his strong support among white supremacists will have an effect in the polls. While he did eventually disavow these endorsements, he did not do so quickly. In addition, Trump has been under constant attack. Many in the Republican establishment are openly challenging his candidacy. Will these attacks have any effect?
Another thing I am looking at very closely is the conservative Latino vote, especially in Texas and Colorado. Will Trump win this vote again? The narrative is that Trump’s comments regarding immigration and his disparaging views on Mexican immigrants will hurt him with Latinos. I tend to agree with this narrative. But, maybe his populist message resonates with some people in this community.
One final observation – Democrats have failed to generate a lot of enthusiasm. Voter participation has severely declined in the last eight years. This does not mean that they will not win the general election but it does raise questions as to whether Clinton is has what it takes to energize voters. Again, Sanders is winning first-time voters by wide margins. He is connecting with voters and bringing them into the process. Clinton is not doing this at all.
The energy in the Republican nomination contests is very strong. Indeed, voter turnout in every single caucus or primary has been record breaking. And one thing that is becoming evident is that Republican voters are very angry at Democrats, the federal government, and the Republican establishment. This anger and frustration with the status quo could be bad for the Clinton campaign, which represents the political establishment and so far has ran a campaign that wants to protect and expand the Obama legacy.
It should be a fun and long night. Maybe, if I have some time this week, I will write one or two entries on the results of Super Tuesday.