What explains Donald Trump’s appeals among conservative voters? In my last post, I noted:
Trump is a divisive figure, constantly attacking his opponents. In a rally held on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, he used a curse word to describe Ted Cruz, the Texan Senator. His supporters tolerate this kind of behavior because they appreciate his willingness to shake-up the status quo and challenge the Republican establishment’s interests. While Trump has not provided a comprehensive plan to “make America great again”, many people agree with his belief that a strong leader can reverse the decline of American power and build a new economy that favors workers who have been displaced by the forces of economic globalization. His strong nationalist sentiments and anti-immigration positions also resonate with a portion of the American electorate.
My thoughts on Trump are largely based on my analysis of the New Hampshire exit poll.
In New Hampshire, Trump won all the main demographic groups (i.e. gender, age, income, education and religion) and in he also won most categories within these groups (i.e. income level and completed education). But if we dig a little bit deeper, we can start noticing some important patterns.
In terms of income, the next table breaks down primary-goers’ yearly income into different brackets. Given Trump’s message of economic populism he tends to do slightly better with working class and middle class voters. In comparison, Kasich did better with wealthier voters than poorer ones.
|
≤ $30k (10%)
|
$30-50k (16%) |
$50-100k (33%) |
$100-200k (31%) |
$200k+ (10%)
|
Trump |
39%
|
40% |
37% |
32% |
32%
|
Kasich |
7%
|
13% |
16% |
19% |
20%
|
Cruz |
14%
|
12% |
12% |
10% |
9%
|
Bush |
16%
|
9% |
11% |
11% |
13%
|
Many Trump supporters did not complete a college education. Forty-seven percent of those polled did not complete a bachelor’s degree. Trump won 42% of this vote, while Cruz who came in second in this category captured 13%. In terms of college graduates, Trump won 30% of the vote, while Kasich captured 19% and Rubio 11%.
The New Hampshire exit poll asked voters to rate their family’s financial situation. Nineteen percent noted that they are “getting ahead”, a great majority stated that they were “holding steady” and 18% argued that they were “falling behind.” While Trump won all these categories, he did better with voters who share a negative outlook, capturing 40% of those voters.
The exit poll also asked respondents to explain whether they believed “life for the next generation of Americans will be”: “better than today” (43%), “worse than today” (33%) or “about the same” (22%). This question is important because the answers point to three different sets of realities. For instance, those that believe that life will be “about the same” are probably less critical of the status quo. They may be doing pretty well financially. Indeed, Trump did not win this group of voters. He tied Kasich’s 22% of the vote. And this is not surprising because Kasich gained more support among wealthier voters than poorer ones.
Trump also won those voters who had a more pessimistic outlook about the future. I believe that these are poorer voters who are overwhelmed by their financial situation. Many of these voters are likely the same ones that described their family’s financial situation as “falling behind”. Thirty percent of these voters supported Trump, while Cruz won 17% of this vote and Kasich 13%.
Those primary-goers who have a more positive outlook strongly favored Trump over his rivals. Trump captured 45% to Kasich’s 15% and Rubio’s 11%. This is not surprising. For all his bravado, Trump’s message is one of optimism. He strongly believes that if elected president he would “make America great again” and many of his supporters see him as an agent of change. This is not always the case with Cruz, who is the other anti-establishment candidate fighting against the status quo. His message, as Sarah McCammon of NPR notes, is not very optimistic.
Thus an important finding is that many of Trump’s core supporters have faith that he is a strong leader that can right many of the country’s challenges.
The exit poll also asked voters two interesting questions. The first asked them to explain how they felt about the federal government. The other asked them whether they felt betrayed by Republican politicians. Here are two tables summarizing respondents’ answers.
Feelings about the federal government |
|
Trump
|
Kasich |
Cruz
|
Enthusiastic (2%) |
n/a
|
n/a |
n/a
|
Satisfied (8%) |
n/a
|
n/a |
n/a
|
Dissatisfied (50%) |
31%
|
21% |
10%
|
Angry (39%) |
44%
|
9% |
15%
|
Do you feel betrayed by Republican politicians? |
|
Trump
|
Kasich |
Cruz
|
Yes (47%) |
37%
|
15% |
15%
|
No (51%) |
35%
|
16% |
9%
|
Survey research on American politics is increasingly noting that Americans, in both sides of the political spectrum, are becoming angry with the federal government. While conservatives are very angry at the Obama administration’s policies, they are also angry at the Republican Party and its leaders. This heightened sense of anger has supported Trump’s ascendancy in the polls and Bernie Sanders’ growing popularity among liberals. The next table shows that 50% of primary-goers believe that Trump is the best qualified to address the nation’s many challenges.
Next president should be… |
|
Trump
|
Kasich |
Cruz
|
Experienced in politics (44%) |
6%
|
27% |
14%
|
Outside the establishment (50%) |
62%
|
6% |
10%
|
Are Trump supporters more conservative than the average Republican? In Iowa, Trump only won the vote of “moderate” caucus-goers. In New Hampshire, he won the vote of “moderate”, “somewhat conservative” and “very conservative” primary-goers by healthy margins. His strongest performance was among “somewhat conservatives” who represented 45% of all primary-goers. While white evangelical voters only represented 25% of conservatives in New Hampshire, Trump won 27% vote, while Cruz who tried to capture a majority of the vote, only received 23%.
What can we make of this reality? It is too early to say. The results from South Carolina’s primary will help us analyze these figures. But here are two observations. First, Trump’s brand of conservatism cannot be labeled as “moderate”, “somewhat conservative” or “very conservative”. Sometimes he paints himself as “very conservative” and at other times he is less so. The other observation is that Trump won the vote of first-time voters in the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. Given the small participation of young people in these two contests, we can assume that Trump has attracted the support of voters who for whatever reason decided to not participate in the political process. This may actually connect to the issue of the angry voter as some research suggests that angry voters are more likely to participate in elections than voters that are satisfied with the status quo.
Do angry voters care about ideological purity? While I am inclined to say no, this question needs serious consideration before I can provide a definitive answer.
Voters were also asked to explain their vote by choosing among four “issues that matter most” and by choosing between four candidate qualities. The next two tables summarize answers to these questions.
Issues that Matters Most |
|
Trump
|
Kasich |
Cruz
|
Government Spending (26% of voters) |
34%
|
15% |
13%
|
Economy/Jobs (33%) |
32%
|
24% |
6%
|
Terrorism (24%) |
29%
|
15% |
12%
|
Immigration (15%) |
53%
|
5% |
21%
|
|
|
|
|
Top Candidate Quality |
|
Trump
|
Kasich |
Cruz
|
Electability (12% of voters) |
33%
|
16% |
6%
|
Shares my values (34%) |
13%
|
20% |
21%
|
Tell it like it is (24%) |
66%
|
7% |
3%
|
Can bring change (28%) |
37%
|
20% |
10%
|
|
|
|
|
Pundits and his rivals have criticized Trump for not explaining how he will translate his promises into reality. While these are fair criticisms they are not entirely accurate. Trump has proposed specific policies to curb immigration and to protect the U.S. homeland from terrorist attacks. This is not to say these are realistic but my point is that Trump has addressed these two issues at great length, while his plans to create jobs or to deal with the federal deficit are less specific. The first table proves this point exactly.
The second table demonstrates that a big portion of primary-goers felt that Trump does not share their values. This is not entirely surprising. Trump’s bombastic statements, his constant character attacks, and his repeated use of curse words in the campaign trail have angered many voters. But these are not his core supporters. The average Trump supporter appreciates his willingness to “tell it like it is”, which can also be associated with his unwillingness to compromise on certain issues and to fight for what he believes in. Interestingly, electability did not score very high on voters’ concerns. Looking at this list of qualities, Trump’s greatest strength is voters’ belief that he is a leader that “can bring change.”
Many of Trump’s supporters are not only angry, but they are also fearful of the future. Though many voters feel economically insecure, as discussed above, a lot of them are afraid that terrorists will attack the U.S. again – a sentiment shared by a majority of primary-goers in New Hampshire.
Worried about terrorist attack in U.S.? |
|
Trump
|
Kasich |
Cruz
|
Very Worried (58%) |
40%
|
10% |
14%
|
Somewhat Worried (32%) |
30%
|
23% |
8%
|
Not too worried (8%) |
n/a
|
n/a |
n/a
|
Not at all worried (1%) |
n/a
|
n/a |
n/a
|
During the Republican debates, the candidates have had a chance to talk about their plans to deal with ISIS and how to prevent future terrorist attacks. Before the New Hampshire primary, Trump took some very controversial positions, including his support of torture as a tool of interrogation. Following the attacks in Paris and the shootings in San Bernardino, Trump also proposed to limit the number of Muslims entering the U.S. The New Hampshire exit poll asked primary-goers whether they supported this policy.
Temporary Ban on Muslims Entering the U.S. |
|
Trump
|
Kasich |
Cruz
|
Support (65%) |
45%
|
11% |
14%
|
Oppose (32%) |
16%
|
26% |
8%
|
I am shocked by the high number of voters who believe that this is a necessary step. What is not surprising is that the voters who support this policy overwhelmingly voted for Trump, while those that opposed this policy favored Kasich, who has publicly criticized Trump for this proposal.
So, what have we learned from this exit poll? Trump’s presidential hopes appeal to a certain segment of the conservative electorate, at least in New Hampshire. It will be interesting to see whether Trump will be able to repeat his victory in South Carolina and whether he does so by attracting voters in these groups.
Working class and middle class voters, especially those who did not finish a college education, seem to be drawn to Trump’s campaign. These voters are frustrated with contemporary politics, irritated with the GOP establishment, angry at the federal government and angrier at the Obama administration’s policies. A large number of of these voters have expressed a real sense of economic insecurity and many more fear for their safety. While it is difficult to use the exit poll to evaluate voter support for Trump’s nationalist, if not nativist, feelings, some primary-goers’ views on immigration and their overwhelming support for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the U.S. may indicate that they share Trump’s nationalist outlook.
Many people have dismissed Trump’s candidacy. Yet, he leads in most polls. The secret to Trump’s success, so far, is his ability to recognize voters’ feelings of anger and fear. His populist message resonates with people who feel economically insecure. His nationalist sentiments gives comforts those who fear attacks from outside forces. Trump’s promise to “make America great again” may sound to some as a hollow slogan, but for a segment of the conservative base it is a message of hope – a return to a time where life was less complex, the economy benefited the majority, the government was more responsive to nation’s need, and American power was respected in the world.