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Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Establishment, Fundraising, GOP, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, New Hampshire, Primary, public opinion, Republican, Republican Party, Ted Cruz, trends, turnout
Forecasting New Hampshire’s primaries is quite difficult. The state has a semi-open primary system which allows undeclared voters, which represent around 44% of the electorate, to participate in either the Democratic or Republican primaries. Registered Republicans makeup 30% of the electorate, giving undeclared voters a chance to determine the outcome of the race.
Bill Gardner, the New Hampshire Secretary of State, predicts that more than 60% of registered voters will participate in the primaries. He also believes that participation in the Republican primary will be higher than in the Democratic one.
As seen in the table below, it is difficult to make accurate predictions about the race. A close reading of the CNN/WMUR poll shows that 31% of likely voters are undecided, while 24% are leaning towards a particular candidate. This means that less than 50% of those polled have decided who they will vote for.
ARG Tracking Poll |
CNN/WMUR |
UMass Lowell/7News |
Emerson College |
Gravis Marketing |
|
2/7 to 2/8 |
2/4 to 2/8 |
2/5 to 2/7 |
2/4 to 2/7 |
2/7 |
|
MoE 5.0 |
MoE 5.2 |
MoE 5.1 |
MoE 3.4 |
MoE 3.7 |
|
Donald Trump |
33% |
31% |
34% |
31% |
28% |
Ted Cruz |
10% |
14% |
13% |
11% |
11% |
Marco Rubio |
14% |
17% |
13% |
12% |
15% |
Jeb Bush |
9% |
7% |
10% |
16% |
14% |
John Kasich |
17% |
10% |
10% |
13% |
17% |
Chris Christie |
8% |
4% |
5% |
6% |
5% |
Ben Carson |
1% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
Carly Fiorina |
3% |
5% |
4% |
7% |
5% |
The data point to a Donald Trump victory, but it is not clear who will be coming in the much coveted second or third places. Come Wednesday morning, I expect some of the candidates to suspend their campaigns. A smaller field will make the nomination race more competitive and complicate Trump’s chances to secure the nomination in the next weeks. If anything, I think that New Hampshire will likely raise a lot of questions about the viability of the two main anti-establishment candidates – Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, while providing a lifeline to the candidates in the so-called “establishment lane”.
While I think that Trump will win the primary, we need to see whether the real estate developer can win by double-digits. If he underperforms, as he did in Iowa, many people will start questioning Trump’s ability to compete in future races. In Iowa, as I noted in a past post, Trump lost registered Republicans and “very conservatives” voters to Cruz and the “somewhat conservative” vote to Florida Senator Marco Rubio. If Trump wants to secure the Republican nomination he needs to attract the support of these voting blocs. Winning the votes of independents and “moderate” voters is not a winning strategy in future Republican contests. Thus, a win in New Hampshire does not guarantee a win in the South Carolina primary or the upcoming Super Tuesday races.
As for Rubio, he came into New Hampshire as the front-runner in the “establishment lane.” But he has been the subject of concerted attacks from other “establishment” candidates and his weak performance in last Saturday’s debate has raised serious questions about his ability to take on Hillary Clinton in the general election. Rubio needs to finish no less than third place to protect his front-runner status and to convince GOP donors to finance his campaign. And with South Carolina in two weeks and Super Tuesday in three weeks, Rubio needs a massive infusion of cash to set up ground operations in all these contests.
John Kasich, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie, after a very poor showing in Iowa, are pinning their presidential hopes to a strong showing in the New Hampshire primary. From the three, Bush is in the strongest financial position and he has made it clear that regardless of the results he will keep on fighting until South Carolina. But if the former Florida Governor is not able to finish in the top four, I expect that the GOP establishment will pressure him to suspend his campaign.
Christie is in a precarious position. He has put all his chips on the table hoping, for a strong finish. Last week the campaign had around $1 million in hand. Although financially strapped, the New Jersey governor has ran a classic New Hampshire campaign. In the last week, he has participated in more events than any other Republican candidate. His attacks on Rubio’s inexperience during the debate has helped him garner lot of media attention. But while Christie has done everything voters in New Hampshire expect of their candidates, he has not been able to get too much traction in the polls. I believe that if he does not break into the top four, he is more than likely going to suspend his campaign later this week.
Most polls have Kasich moving upwards. Multiple stories suggest that the current Ohio Governor has a very strong ground game and he has organized 23 events in the last week. And after a very strong performance in the last debate, I suspect that many undecided voters have given Kasich a second look. He has won the endorsement of the New York Times and Boston Globe and he also enjoys the support of many Republican leaders in the state. While the endorsements of these two newspapers could hurt him in other states, it speaks to his more moderate record, which is in line with New Hampshire’s “moderate to liberal” voter, which in 2012 represented 47% of the electorate.
Although Kasich seems to be the strongest governor in the race, it is not clear whether he will do well in South Carolina and in other states. Bush has recently attacked Kasich’s past support for a ban against assault weapons that could hurt him in future races. His decision to work with the Obama administration to expand Medicaid in Ohio has been the focus of another Bush attack. It will be interesting to see whether these attacks stopped Kasich’s momentum in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire is an important test for the Cruz campaign. Cruz’s natural constituency is made up of “very conservative” and white evangelical voters. As noted with Trump, the results of the Granite State’s primary will help us gauge whether Cruz can broaden his base of support. Right now he has enough money to continue his race until Super Tuesday, but a finish in second or third place will help him secure his front-runner status.
The final two candidates are Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina. Carson’s campaign in New Hampshire is non-existent. He has only held four events in the last week, and all of them were in Manchester or its surrounding communities. I expect he will come in last place and he will be out of the race sometime this week. In contrast, Fiorina has campaigned hard in the state. She has held 22 events in the last week. Her numbers have slightly improved in the last polls, but I don’t think she will get anywhere close to fourth place. I also expect Fiorina to suspend her campaign sometime this week.
To conclude, I think Trump will win the primary. I can’t predict who will finish in second, third, and fourth places. But, I strongly believe that Carson and Fiorina will be suspending their campaigns sometime this week. If Christie fails to secure a top four finis, he may also have to end his campaign. Regardless of what happens tonight, the New Hampshire primary will spoil some candidates’ presidential hopes, changing the dynamics of the Republican nomination race.