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Campaign, Conservative, Donald Trump, Establishment, Fundraising, GOP, John Kasich, New Hampshire, Primary, Republican, Republican Party, Spending
Last week Donald Trump decisively won the New Hampshire Republican primary. The nomination battle is today less crowded as Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, and Jim Gilmore suspended their campaigns. Will real estate developer secure the nomination? Will Ted Cruz, the Texan Senator? Or will one of the establishment politicians take control of the race?
This is a battle for delegates. So let’s see where we are today, going into tomorrow’s South Carolina GOP primary and next week’s GOP Nevada Caucus.
IA Delegates | IA % | NH Delegates | NH% | Total Delegates | |
D. Trump | 7 | 24% | 10 | 35% | 17 |
T. Cruz | 8 | 28% | 3 | 12% | 11 |
M. Rubio | 7 | 23% | 3 | 11% | 10 |
J. Kasich | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 16% | 5 |
J. Bush | 1 | 2.8% | 3 | 11% | 4 |
B. Carson | 3 | 9.3% | 0 | 2.3% | 3 |
In this post, I will compare John Kasich’s campaign to Trump’s. This short analysis help us contextualize the contest and understand that even though Trump did not spend too much time or money in the state, he still scored a huge victory.
New Hampshire primary-goers, like Iowa caucus-goers or South Carolinian voters, expect their presidential candidates to spend a lot of time in their state, talking about the issues and listening to voters’ concerns. Historically, voters in the Granite State make-up their minds late in the game. So, in the closing week of the race, the candidates spend time and resources mobilizing their supporters and closing the deal with undecided voters. The following table summarizes Republican candidates’ campaign strategy in New Hampshire.
Visits to NH | Campaign Events | Total TV Spending | |
Trump | 29 | 46 | $3.1m |
Kasich | 29 | 190 | $12.3m |
Cruz | 16 | 76 | $0.4m |
Bush | 26 | 111 | $34.0m |
Rubio | 23 | 90 | $16.7m |
Christie | 38 | 190 | $14.6m |
Fiorina | 27 | 149 | $1.8m |
Carson | 12 | 37 | $0.6m |
Sources: Data on candidates’ visits and events in New Hampshire was based on the NECN’s candidate tracker. Data on television spending was calculated by National Public Radio. It important to note that these figures include each campaign’s on television spending plus that spent by SuperPACs associated with these campaigns. |
John Kasich opted to skip Iowa. He decided to spend his resources in New Hampshire, hoping that a strong showing would energize his presidential hopes and attract the necessary funding to stay in the race. The strategy paid off. With a second place finish, the Ohio Governor has been able to raise more money and new donors, including Ken Langone, the Home Depot founder and one of Christie’s main donors. While in South Carolina he is not likely to finish in the top third, Kasich will be very competitive in the upcoming primaries in the Midwest and the Northeast. This is one of the reasons he has been recently campaigning in Michigan and Massachusetts.
Kasich ran the quintessential “New Hampshire” campaign. As noted in the table above, he visited the state 29 times and held 190 events. In the closing week of the race, he held 34 events, averaging 3 per day. His campaign and his SuperPAC spent $12.3 million.
Compared to his rivals, Kasich ran a more positive campaign. He restrained from attacking his opponents and he was not afraid to tout his experience and pragmatism. In the debates and in the campaign trail, Kasich often pointed to his ability to work with Democrats to solve important issues. And while his decision to work with the Obama administration to expand Medicaid in Ohio under the Affordable Care Act is controversial with many Republicans, it also demonstrate his willingness to ignore the Republican establishment’s interests if it means it can help people in need. In fact, Kasich’s message was one of compassion, emphasizing that Republicans should care about the needs of the poor, recognize the concerns of minority populations, and be tolerant of other people’s cultures and faith.
The exit polls show that many of Kasich’s supporters made up their minds in the closing days of the contest. It seems that his debate performance a few days before the primary convinced many undecided voters to take another look at his campaign. He did better with undeclared voters than with registered Republicans and most of his supporters are self-described “moderates”. His supporters also appreciated his experience dealing with economic issues and he was the clear favorite for those primary-goers who believe the “next president should be experienced in politics”.
If Kasich ran a traditional “retail” campaign, then Trump’s effort can be best described as “wholesale”. He spent little time in the state, preferring to commute via his private jet to New Hampshire from New York City. According to the New England Cable News’ candidate tracker, Trump visited the state 29 times and only held 46 events. Sixteen of these events were held in the closing week of the race. And many of these events were big rallies, rather than town hall meetings. Moreover, he only spent $3.7 million in television advertisement, the lowest level of spending among the top Republican candidates.
In contrast to Kasich’s more hopeful message, Trump has been more divisive, constantly attacking his opponents. In a rally held on the eve of the primary, he used a curse word to describe Ted Cruz. His supporters tolerate this kind of behavior because they appreciate Trump’s willingness to shake-up the status quo and challenge the Republican establishment’s interests. While Trump has not provided a comprehensive plan to “make America great again,” many people do agree with his belief that a strong leader can reverse the decline of American power and build a new economy that favors workers who have been displaced by the forces of economic globalization. His strong nationalist sentiments and anti-immigration positions also resonate with a portion of the American electorate.
But, what is interesting about the New Hampshire primary is that the winner ran a campaign that defied New Hampshirites’ expectations. It not only demonstrate that Trump’s message and antics resonate with a core group of voters, but it also shows that voters are thirsty for change. Who are these voters? In the next post, I answer this question using the findings of the New Hampshire exit poll. But for now, I want to conclude this short analysis with three questions:
- Can Trump repeat his New Hampshire victory in other states? Tomorrow’s South Carolina GOP primary will test his candidacy. His campaign has changed tactics, opting to keep Trump in the state. If he can replicate his New Hampshire victory, turnout his core supporters, and make inroads in other voting groups, it is difficult to see how other candidates will be able to stop his momentum going into Nevada or Super Tuesday.
- Can Kasich win future caucuses and primaries? As noted above, Kasich has left South Carolina and is starting to organize in Northeastern, Midwestern and the Western states. Indeed, Kasich has one big advantage over his “establishment” rivals. He is more than likely to win the Ohio primary, which is winner take-all and has 66 delegates. His brand of conservatism will not play well in the South, but it should resonate in states with more “moderate” conservative voters or states with open caucus and primaries.
- Could Trump win future caucus and primaries, if the field of candidates gets smaller? This I think is the most important question as the GOP establishment will more than likely start to pressure the weaker candidates to suspend their campaigns after the Nevada caucus to help one of the “establishment” candidates a chance to spoil Trump’s and Cruz’s presidential aspirations.